High Stakes For GOP’s Steve Garvey in Monday Senate Debate, But He May be Helping Adam Schiff

In his bid to become the first Republican United States Senator elected in California since 1988, retired Major League Baseball star Steve Garvey has surged past Orange County Democrat Katy Porter into second place, according to a new poll. Now, political neophyte Garvey will get a chance to go head to head with the race’s three leading candidates, all Democrats, when they all take the stage at the University of Southern California on Monday evening.

The debate airs Monday, Jan. 22, at 6 pm and is scheduled to run for 90 minutes. The broadcast will be carried live by Fox 11 in Los Angeles, and Fox 2 in the Bay Area.

The race to replace Dianne Feinstein, who died in office last September at age 90, will get its first debate on Jan. 22. Garvey, a 10-time MLB All-Star who played 19 seasons for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres but retired 37 years ago, has never taken part in a political debate before—unlike the three, seasoned Democrats he’ll be facing off against: Adam Schiff of Burbank, Barbara Lee of Oakland, and Porter. All three are current members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

Garvey has spent his post-baseball career in private business, as well as becoming involved in prominent charities including the United Way and Special Olympics. Despite, or possibly because of his lack of political experience, Garvey has been able to throw a wrench in the race that was previously seen as a three-way battle among Schiff, Lee and Porter. 

The top two candidates in the March 5 primary election will advance to a November runoff. For most of the race, Porter held on to second place in polling but in a Jan. 18 Emerson College poll, Garvey opened up a five-point lead over Porter, with 18 percent support statewide. Porter came in third at 13 percent with Lee appearing to fade at just 8 percent.

Schiff continued to top the field with a commanding 25 percent support, according to the Emerson poll. Schiff has already captured the endorsement of the Los Angeles Times, while Lee received a major endorsement from the McClatchy newspaper chain, which owns five papers in California flagshipped by the Sacramento Bee.

The Monday showdown will allow voters to see “whether Garvey positions himself as Arnold Schwarzenegger, Kevin McCarthy or Larry Elder,” political analyst Dan Schur told the Mercury News. 

A poll by the U.C. Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies released Jan. 12 showed Porter in second at 17 percent and Garvey four points behind her. Lee took 9 percent. Schiff led the field at 21.

Some political experts see Monday’s debate, however, as a make-or-break moment for Garvey who has yet to convey a clear political identity.

Political analyst Dan Schnur—who teaches at UC Berkeley as well as Pepperdine University and USC—told the Mercury News that Garvey is “the most important person on the debate stage.” The Monday showdown will allow voters to see “whether Garvey positions himself as Arnold Schwarzenegger, Kevin McCarthy or Larry Elder,” Schur told the Merc. 

Schwarzenegger, a Hollywood superstar, was the last Republican to win a statewide California election when he was reelected governor in 2006. His political positions have generally been seen as moderate. 

With a California electorate that remains heavily Democratic, the candidate who may benefit most from a strong debate performance by Garvey may not be Garvey himself, but Schiff. If Schiff faces off against a Republican in the general election, he will not have to worry about Democrats splitting their votes.

McCarthy is the outgoing House rep from Bakersfield who was once considered one of the “young guns” of the national Republican Party, aligning himself with the party’s right wing including with former President Donald Trump. McCarthy eventually reached the House Speakership only to see his career flame out in an internecine battle with members of his own party. 

Elder, another supporter of Trump, is a far-right-wing radio talk show host who attempted to replace Gavin Newsom in the 2022 recall election, only to see Newsom retain office in a landslide. Garvey says he voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020, but will not commit to supporting him in 2024 or to accepting Trump's endorsement if the likely Republican presidential nominee offers it.

With a California electorate that remains heavily Democratic, the candidate who may benefit most from a strong debate performance by Garvey may not be Garvey himself, but Schiff. If Schiff faces off against a Republican in the general election, he will not have to worry about Democrats splitting their votes.

“The general election could be handed to Schiff on a silver platter if Garvey were to finish second” in the primary, Schnur said in a separate interview with the New York Times.

The debate airs Monday, Jan. 22, at 6 pm and is scheduled to run for 90 minutes. The broadcast will be carried live by KTTV Fox 11 in Los Angeles, and KTVU Fox 2 in the Bay Area. A live stream will be carried by Politico.com, which is co-sponsoring the debate with Fox 11, as well as the FoxLA.com site. The USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future will also livestream the debate via Facebook.